by Erica Riray

Voters know who they want to win, but experts in politics and government can tell you who will based on trends, statistics and polls. These predictions will either put voters’ minds at ease or mobilize them even further. 

LMU Political Science professor Dr. Fernando Guerra serves as the director of the Thomas and Dorothy Leavey Center for the Study of Los Angeles (StudyLA), a public opinion research organization and undergraduate research center founded at LMU. StudyLA uses research, student mentorship and engagement with the Los Angeles community to advocate for a more equitable community, or as Dr. Guerra puts it: “how to do research to make society better.”

Guerra, along with LMU Political Science professor Dr. Michael Genovese and Loyola Law School professor Jessica Levinson, J.D., teaches “Campaigns and Elections,” an LMU course focusing on the 2020 presidential election. The course gives students a deeper understanding of democracy while also encouraging students to contribute to the electoral process by serving as election workers.  

Assisted by StudyLA faculty Alejandra Alarcon, Max Dunsker and Jorge Cortes, Dr. Guerra gave students a first look at StudyLA’s survey on top political thought leaders’ predictions for the 2020 general election. 

The respondents included 174 elected officials, academics, philanthropists, lobbyists, corporate executives and leaders of neighborhood councils that either reside or work in Los Angeles County. Among these respondents were LA Mayor Eric Garcetti, LMU President Timothy Law Snyder and several other LMU faculty members. 

The results from these predictions are based on the expert opinion of trends in public thought, analysis of the election campaigns so far and probable voter turnouts. The full report will be made available on their website along with their other reports on the Los Angeles community.

Who will win the presidency?

• Angelenos predict a landslide victory for Democratic Nominee Joe Biden. 86.2% predict the former Vice President will win the presidency and 77% of these respondents are confident in their predictions. 

• 13.8% predict Republican Nominee Donald Trump will win the presidency. 50% of these respondents are confident in their results. 

Which party will have control over the Senate?

• 65.1% predict that Democrats will flip the Senate. 

• 34.9% predict that Republicans will keep their majority.

If Kamala Harris resigned from the Senate to become Vice President, whom do you think California Governor Gavin Newsom would appoint to fill her seat?

• 35.2% predict that Gov. Newsom will appoint the current California Secretary of State Alex Padilla.

• 16.9% predict he will choose current Long Beach Mayor Robert Garcia. 

• 14.8% predict he will choose current California Attorney General Xavier Becerra. 

Respondents listed other potential appointments in the full report, which included the possibility that Gov. Newsom would appoint himself.  

Who will win the Congressional seat in District 25 of California?

• 52.9% predict Democrat Christy Smith will be the victor. 

• 47.1% predict that the incumbent Republican Mike Garcia will keep his seat.

Who will win the Los Angeles District Attorney race?

• 63.6% believe former San Francisco District Attorney George Gascón will win.

• 36.5% predict incumbent Jackie Lacey will keep her seat.

Dr. Guerra believes that this is the most important local race on the 2020 ballot given the size of LA County and the rising criticism of Jackie Lacey’s policies on police brutality and the Black community. 

What will voter turnout look like?

• The average prediction is that 71.5% of registered voters in LA County will vote and that 64.5% of those voters will vote by mail.

What to do with these results:

These results are not meant to be taken as reality. Dr. Guerra has been a pollster for years, but he still says “it’s good to be skeptical,” and that the main goal of the study was to “see the degree the political class influences the outcomes of the election.” 

The projections voters see in polls and reports like StudyLA’s are based on historical voter turnout trends. There are more eligible people registered to vote in California than there have been in the past 100 years. This combined with the fact that there are more registered Democrats than Republicans leads Dr. Guerra to believe that polls may be “underreporting” the support for Biden if Americans vote by their registered party (which they usually do).

“If there’s enthusiasm from young voters who have never voted before, they aren’t accounted for in poll results,” says Dr. Guerra. 

Prof. Levinson also reminds voters that young people (18-24-year-olds) have “the power to sway elections” as a generation that makes up 10% of the electorate.

In Congresswoman Karen Bass’s speech for LMU’s Constitution Day, she reminded us that college students are not immune to COVID-19. Yet as students return to Los Angeles, many appear to be unfazed by the risks of the current pandemic when throwing parties and large gatherings. 

At the time this article was written, LA Public Health reported 279,909 COVID-19 cases in LA County, a number that is increasing by about 1,250 a day. Fatality rates have slowed, but 6,741 people have died from COVID-19 in LA County to date.

Some LMU students who weren’t able to secure on-campus housing still find themselves living close to campus, occupying buildings in Playa Vista and Westchester. In attempts to replicate what is left of the college experience away from the Bluff, groups of friends are quarantining together, attending Zoom lectures in the same rooms and leaning on each other for emotional support that they may not receive back home. 

But COVID outbreaks in colleges across the country tell us that the pandemic poses a threat to the fun. Despite strict precautions that mirror those released by LMU in early August, the University of Southern California (USC) experienced a spike in cases, according to USC Chief Student Health Officer Sarah Van Orman. Students have been found throwing parties in off-campus apartments, in one instance causing a COVID-19 outbreak that put over a hundred people in quarantine. 

Similarly, California State University, Long Beach (CSULB) reported an outbreak of COVID-19 cases directly related to large gatherings of students on and off campus near the end of September. This outbreak put approximately 328 on-campus residents in quarantine and CSULB has since asked off-campus community members to self-isolate. 

USC and CSULB’s neighborhoods are home to Black and Brown communities who are particularly vulnerable to the coronavirus. The Center for Disease Control (CDC) has reported that racial and ethnic minority groups are more likely to contract COVID-19 due to social inequities including access to healthcare, occupation and housing. In addition to facing gentrification and increasing rent, a deadly virus is now brewing in their backyards. 

LMU students are capable of quickly catching and spreading COVID-19 to the most vulnerable members of the community in the same way. Black and Brown residents have occupied the neighborhoods surrounding LMU for years. In Westchester, the minority groups listed in the CDC’s report make up 48% of the population. About four miles away in Inglewood, they make up about 70%. 

In an October 2020 report, the CDC has concluded that young adults significantly contribute to community transmission of COVID-19. The CDC’s new data confirms that people ages 20-29 make up the highest percentage of COVID-19 cases nationwide, surpassing adults aged 60 and older.

To accommodate public health guidelines, the university has reduced housing occupancy to one student per unit with Resident Directors enforcing housing rules.

Sophomore Cobe Alvarez is currently living alone in an on-campus apartment. His experience has been comfortable and safe since Resident Directors are actively limiting entrance into buildings. 

Alvarez expressed that seeing other residents’ social media posts of small kickbacks and gatherings worry him due to how the virus could be spread through these activities.

“I would say I'm more concerned about students doing stuff off campus, [or] students living on campus and going off campus, than I am about [living] on campus specifically,” said Alvarez. 

LMU has also promoted safety on and off campus during the pandemic. Over the Labor Day weekend, LMU released a “Protect the Pride” video on social media. Students from Sorority and Fraternity Life (SFL) encouraged students to follow social distancing guidelines. LMU has also been updating their  “LMU Together” page and adopting the motto “EIBC,” short for Excellent Infectious Behavior Control.

“[EIBC] encourages students to monitor their behavior, stand six feet apart, wear their masks [and] not gather in large groups of three or more,” explained Amiya Powell-Hodge, interim Assistant Director of Off-Campus Student Life.

Playa Del Oro (PDO), an apartment building minutes from campus, is primarily occupied by LMU students every year given its proximity to campus, and this semester is no different. Sophomore PDO resident Meghan Quadracci reported that the building has been promoting distancing and limiting entrance to shared spaces like the pool. But unlike the residents living on campus, there are no Resident Directors or Public Safety officers to enforce distancing and the number of guests in the apartments. 

In an email sent out to LMU’s Service Organization Community (SOC) in September, Center for Service and Action (CSA) Assistant Director for Student Engagement Chelsea Brown reprimanded large gatherings that were allegedly reported and pleaded with students to stop.

“[W]e are only on day 2 of the semester and there have already been reports of students gathering in large groups at houses outside the back gates and in Playa Del Oro,” Brown wrote. “Here’s the thing: please don’t.” 

It is unclear if the university has taken any action regarding these specific reports or exactly whom these incidents of gatherings were reported to. 

Off-campus residents who hold gatherings may also face consequences from the local government. The LA County Health Officer Order’s Impact on Daily Life explicitly states that “individual and family gatherings or parties of any size aren’t allowed.” LA Mayor Eric Garcetti has also threatened to shut off utilities for those who violate public health orders such as these. 

Powell-Hodge explained that LMU has taken a more restorative approach over a punitive one to violations of COVID-19 preventative procedures.

“We are addressing it with care and compassion as we would anything else,” said Powell-Hodge.

If a neighboring member of the community files a complaint, the university writes a report and Off Campus Student Life will follow up with students as needed. There have been no complaints publicly reported by LMU.

University life has changed drastically with the pandemic. LMU has made resources available to students but is not directly policing them. Students are the only ones responsible for their individual decisions. 

Powell-Hodge wants to remind students to “consider your values and who you value. This is a time for us to be creative about the way we conceptualize community and we have to do that with every member of our community in mind. That is what’s going to help us return to our campus life.”